不仅仅是天气预报员
U of I’s 约翰Abatzoglou Investigates 气候变化 Impacts across Disciplines
对大多数孩子来说, the highlight of their 7th birthday may be a new two-wheel bike, 一个疯狂的蛋糕或者一个特别的生日派对. 但是当约翰Abatzoglou回忆起他的7岁生日时, 他一边描述气压计一边咧嘴笑着, 他收到了温度计和雨量计.
“从我记事起，我就被天气迷住了. 我想成为一名气象学家,阿巴佐格鲁说, 现在是365滚球官网的副教授 地理系. “What’s bonkers is that I grew up in Southern California — not a place renown for exciting weather. But I do recall staying up late into the night to watch thunderstorms light up the sky — 和 I was hooked.”
Abatzoglou从未成为一名天气预报员. 在365滚球官网读本科期间, 戴维斯, he studied atmospheric sciences 和 admits he was a terrible forecaster. 而不是, Abatzoglou发现自己被气候研究所吸引, including the ins 和 outs of atmospheric circulation 和 climate variability.
“I was really interested in trying to underst和 how the atmosphere was connected to other facets of Earth’s systems, 这让我离今天的工作更近了一点,他说. 现在, Abatzoglou’s inquiries include how climate influences natural resource availability, 他致力于将他的发现传达给科学家, 政策制定者和公众.
气候无处不在
Abatzoglou在365滚球官网获得博士学位, 欧文, where he investigated how global wind patterns influence climate. 然后, during a postdoctoral fellowship at the Desert 研究 Institute in Nevada, Abatzoglou 发现 his niche studying climate in the Western United States.
Uninterested in dedicating himself to just one aspect of climate science, Abatzoglou在各种气候问题之间摇摆不定, bebopping among studies on everything from wildfire 和 agriculture to water availability, 云盖和山松甲虫. For each interdisciplinary collaboration, he provides the climate aspect of the story.
“I find myself working with ecologists, hydrologists 和 economists,阿巴佐格鲁说. “I 可以 start to see how weather 和 climate are important to each of these different fields 和 individual research questions.”
And his desire to seek out interdisciplinary projects has rubbed off on his students.
“I find myself working with ecologists, hydrologists 和 economists,阿巴佐格鲁说. “I 可以 start to see how weather 和 climate are important to each of these different fields 和 individual research questions.” 约翰Abatzoglou，地理学副教授
“I’ve realized that John’s willingness to work across disciplines is a huge strength,劳伦·帕克说, 他是Abatzoglou实验室的博士后研究员. “A lot of scientists build their little box 和 stay inside of it 和 that is not how John operates. 他看到了更大的图景，并希望参与其中.”
Abatzoglou的许多项目都产生了 数据集 他与公众分享的信息. University scientists, companies 和 water resource boards have all used his 数据集.
土、气、火、水
Abatzoglou’s research has hit on all the elements since he joined U of I’s 教师 in 2009. 例如，a 2013年的研究 表示一个 1950-2012年冬季西风的减少 likely led to less high-elevation precipitation 和 contributed to reductions in Pacific Northwest stream flows.
他的大部分研究都集中在野火上, 包括气候如何驱动和促成火灾, 尤其是燃烧的面积.
“We have 发现 that year-to-year fluctuations in the burned area is primarily linked to climate variability in the Western United States,阿巴佐格鲁说. “That might be because we have more fuel or what we are seeing is extremely dry fuel conditions where fire suppression efforts are being less effective.”
2016年，Abatzoglou和他的同事 证明了 人类造成的气候变化, 是什么导致了气候变暖变干燥, has been responsible for about half the dryness in wildfire fuels since the 1970s. They estimate this increase in vegetation dryness has led to a doubling of forest area burned since 1984.
His current work includes taking lessons learned about climate 和 fire in the Ameri可以 West 和 asking how such relationships are additionally influenced by vegetation types 和 human l和-use at global scales.
最冷的夜晚变暖了
Some of Abatzoglou’s studies focus solely on climate change in the Pacific Northwest. 他和他的同事 发现 temperatures in Washington, Oregon, Idaho 和 parts of Wyoming 和 Montana have increased by 0.6-0.1901年到2012年的8摄氏度. 在这种情况下, there was no way to explain the warming in the Northwest without incorporating human-caused climate change into the equation, Abatzoglou说.
The team also 发现 regional temperatures on the coldest nights of the year have warmed by 3-5 degrees Celsius since 1970. The temperature during the coldest night of the year 可以 dictate where crops 可以 be grown 和 whether bark beetles survive the winter.
在对农作物的后续研究中, Abatzoglou 和 Parker – who earned her doctorate under Abatzoglou in 2017 – explored how future climate change will affect where certain perennial crops, 比如果树和坚果树, 可以 可持续增长. 具体地说, 他们了解到温暖的冬天会改变杏仁的位置, 猕猴桃和橙子可以在一年中最冷的月份存活下来.
“I see the value of scientists communicating directly with people,阿巴佐格鲁说. “每个人都在谈论气候变化. But climate scientists are producing knowledge to prepare societies to do something about it.”约翰Abatzoglou，地理学副教授
“在气候较冷的地方, 有扩大作物产量的机会, 在气候温暖的地方, 比如南加州, 你可能会看到收缩,帕克说.
例如, temperatures in the Willamette Valley of Oregon will likely be warm enough over the next half century to successfully produce 杏仁. They are continuing their work by looking into other crops — cherries, blueberries 和 hazelnuts — that Northwest growers are interested in producing.
为气候变化发声
For Abatzoglou, research doesn’t end after he publishes a journal article. He said that scientists are not serving the public well if they don't communicate the value of science, 特别是如果联邦政府资助他们的研究.
“I see the value of scientists communicating directly with people,阿巴佐格鲁说. “每个人都在谈论气候变化. But climate scientists are producing knowledge to prepare societies to do something about it.”
2018年6月出版
本文由 利库柏，大学传播与市场营销.
在线查找Abatzoglou
- 记者采访(例子: L.A. 次, 华盛顿邮报》 和 发言人评论)
- Writes climate 和 weather articles for the National Oceanic 和 Atmospheric Administration’s 太平洋西北气候影响研究协会
- 在推特上沉迷于他对天气和气候的迷恋 @climate_guy